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Predicting species survival in the face of climate change requires understanding the drivers that influence their distribution. Emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) incubate and rear chicks on landfast sea ice, whose extent, dynamics, and quality are expected to vary substantially due to climate change. Until recently, this species’ continent-wide observations were scarce, and knowledge on their distribution and habitat limited. Advances in satellite imagery now allow their observation and characterization of habitats across Antarctica at high resolution. Using circumpolar high-resolution satellite images, unique fast ice metrics, and geographic and biological factors, we identified diverse penguin habitats across the continent, with no significant difference between areas with penguins or not. There is a clear geographic partitioning of colonies with respect to their defining habitat characteristics, indicating possible behavioral plasticity among different metapopulations. This coincides with geographic structures found in previous genetic studies. Given projections of quasi-extinction for this species in 2100, this study provides essential information for conservation measures. 

Like many polar animals, emperor penguin populations are challenging to monitor because of the species' life history and remoteness. Consequently, it has been difficult to establish its global status, a subject important to resolve as polar environments change. To advance our understanding of emperor penguins, we combined remote sensing, validation surveys and using Bayesian modelling, we estimated a comprehensive population trajectory over a recent 10-year period, encompassing the entirety of the species’ range. Reported as indices of abundance, our study indicates with 81% probability that there were fewer adult emperor penguins in 2018 than in 2009, with a posterior median decrease of 9.6% (95% credible interval (CI) −26.4% to +9.4%). The global population trend was −1.3% per year over this period (95% CI = −3.3% to +1.0%) and declines probably occurred in four of eight fast ice regions, irrespective of habitat conditions. Thus far, explanations have yet to be identified regarding trends, especially as we observed an apparent population uptick toward the end of time series. Our work potentially establishes a framework for monitoring other Antarctic coastal species detectable by satellite, while promoting a need for research to better understand factors driving biotic changes in the Southern Ocean ecosystem. 

Adélie penguins are renowned for their natal philopatry on land-based colonies, requiring small pebbles to be used for nests. We report on an opportunistic observation via aerial survey, where hundreds of Adélie penguins were documented displaying nesting behaviours on fast ice ~3 km off the coast of Cape Crozier, which is one of the largest colonies in the world. We counted 426 Adélie penguins engaging in behaviours of pair formation, spacing similarly to normal nest distributions and lying in divots in the ice that looked like nests. On our first visit, it was noticed that the guano stain was bright pink, consistent with krill consumption, but had shifted to green over the course of ~2 weeks, indicating that the birds were fasting (a behaviour consistent with egg incubation). However, eggs were not observed. We posit four hypotheses that may explain the proximate causes of this behaviour and caution against future high-resolution satellite imagery interpretation due to the potential for confusing ice-nesting Adélie penguins with the presence of emperor penguin colonies.